KAIROS — PUBLIC
freshest 2026-08-29 06:08 UTC · oldest 2026-08-29 06:02 UTC · page built 2026-08-29 06:08 UTC · refreshes hourly while the desk is online

00 COMMAND BAND

the numbers a decision needs, in the order it needs them
spot $81.49
mode TOP-PROXIMITY
15-day risk of a 15% fall ELEVATED · 47% [41–53] n=277
flips to decline below $78.05 · 4.4% away
ƒ longs pay, 24h 5%/yr · p11 of 633d
◇ options brace for 61%
next vesting gate none in queue
unstaking queue, 7d 2.60M HYPE

01 TOPS ENGINE

6m

No decline is running. The page is watching the pre-top side: what the signals read now, and how far price is from the level that would start a decline.

funding, last 24 hours 5%/yr of 15%/yr quiet What longs paid, over the last day.
price extended above its own average 0.78σ of 1.50σ quiet How far price has run above its own recent average.
the last month's run 46.5% of 40.0% FIRING How much of a run the last month has been.
shown, not scored
funding, last 7 days 14%/yr of 20%/yr The same cost, averaged over the week.
price extended above its own average — extreme tier 0.78σ of 2.50σ How far price has run above its own recent average.
swing size, two weeks vs one month — warm tier 1.23× of 1.10× Is the tape swinging harder than it was last month?
swing size, two weeks vs one month — the retired line 1.23× of 1.25× Is the tape swinging harder than it was last month?
which past top today most resembles similarity rank, not a probability · ranked out of 19 · scores within 5 points render as tied

Ranked only on how close today's three scored readings sit to what each past top read on the day it topped. It is NOT a probability and it is NOT the decline matcher — it is the weakest thing on this page, and it is here because a resemblance worth eyeballing is still worth showing.

#1 of 19 2026-07-07 89 ≈ tied (±5) SWING fell to −29.9% over 26 days, back to the old high in 43 days matches on: price stretch · differs on: month-long run 11%/yr 0.84σ 16% day 1: -7.3% day 2: -8.0% day 3: -7.5% day 4: -8.5% day 5: -7.7% day 6: -13.1% day 7: -10.1% day 8: -8.3% day 9: -16.7% day 10: -18.1% day 11: -17.4% day 12: -16.2% day 13: -14.4% day 14: -16.6% day 15: -18.6% day 16: -21.2% day 17: -21.3% day 18: -20.3% day 19: -18.3% day 20: -23.1% day 21: -24.4% day 22: -26.1% day 23: -23.4% day 24: -28.0% day 25: -28.5% day 26: -27.9% day 27: -26.0% day 28: -24.6% day 29: -21.9% day 30: -23.0% day 31: -25.9% day 32: -24.5% day 33: -26.2% day 34: -24.5% day 35: -25.3% day 36: -23.2% day 37: -21.2% day 38: -22.5% day 39: -22.0% day 40: -21.7% day 41: -18.5% day 42: -19.8% day 43: -4.3%
#2 of 19 2026-02-03 87 ≈ tied (±5) SWING fell to −33.4% over 21 days, back to the old high in 38 days matches on: funding level · differs on: month-long run 10%/yr 1.03σ 22% day 1: -7.8% day 2: -14.0% day 3: -15.8% day 4: -18.3% day 5: -15.6% day 6: -18.5% day 7: -25.0% day 8: -23.6% day 9: -19.2% day 10: -17.9% day 11: -17.2% day 12: -20.2% day 13: -18.8% day 14: -23.3% day 15: -25.4% day 16: -24.6% day 17: -21.0% day 18: -22.7% day 19: -24.5% day 20: -31.4% day 21: -29.6% day 22: -27.5% day 23: -26.9% day 24: -29.0% day 25: -18.8% day 26: -18.0% day 27: -14.7% day 28: -18.6% day 29: -16.3% day 30: -20.6% day 31: -19.3% day 32: -21.2% day 33: -20.2% day 34: -9.8% day 35: -11.1% day 36: -5.8% day 37: -3.1% day 38: -5.2%
#3 of 19 2025-08-27 84 ≈ tied (±5) FLUSH fell to −17.0% over 5 days, back to the old high in 12 days matches on: price stretch · differs on: month-long run 17%/yr 0.89σ 7% day 1: -11.0% day 2: -13.2% day 3: -13.9% day 4: -13.5% day 5: -15.8% day 6: -12.4% day 7: -10.4% day 8: -11.5% day 9: -7.8% day 10: -10.2% day 11: -8.1% day 12: -0.6%

TODAY reads 5%/yr 0.78σ 46.5%

where this page changes what it shows A daily close at or below $78.05 — ten percent under the $86.73 high set on 2026-08-27 — flips this page into decline-matching. From $81.76 that is 4.7% away.

Library: 19 tracked episodes · median trough -30.6% over 19 days, recovery median 29 days (0 never recovered).

Every profile on this page is computed from real HYPE price history, never curated. Historical patterns do not predict future outcomes. The lines that score were fitted on the same nineteen events they are judged against, so out of sample they will be worse — that is why every rate here carries its range and its sample size, and why the whole dial is scheduled for a falsification review on 2026-11-23.

01A ASCENT TRACKER 19 past rises · one rule, mirrored from the tops engine

6m · ASCENT RUNNING
rise day 27 of the rise from $51.08 — older than 17 of 18 past rises, and past the size most of them topped at
where this rise stands day count and peak gain, each against the 18 completed rises · median threshold ticked
day count day 27 older than 17 of 18 (94% [74–99])
days-to-peak distribution, completed rises only median 13d · min 3d · max 49d
peak gain +69.8% larger than 14 of 18 (78% [55–91])
peak-gain distribution, completed rises only median +43.4% · min +15.6% · max +329.7%
path overlay — this rise against its closest matches gain %, day-aligned from each episode's own floor · log-spaced x-axis
+0% +47% +93% +140% d1d2d3d4d5d7d10d15d20d27d30 Median of the completed library, day-aligned. 2025-08-21 — peaked at +26.7% after 6 days 2026-06-10 — peaked at +46.4% after 6 days 2026-04-30 — peaked at +15.6% after 6 days, then the floor broke before a top confirmed This rise, day by day. You are here — the current day of this rise.
current path top-3 analogs (#1 heavier) library median
day by day, against the same day of each past rise day_aligned_median counts only COMPLETED episodes still running on that day — an episode that topped has ended and contributes nothing after it. The current still-running episode is excluded entirely (comparing it to itself would be circular). n falls with the day count and is printed beside every cell. day_aligned_median_untruncated is the older convention (every calendar day counted whether or not the episode had already topped), published for audit, not for display.
episode d1d2d3d4d5d7d10d15d20d27d30
this rise +5.6% +7.7% +11.4% +9.9% +5.8% +5.4% +9.7% +16.3% +55.5% +60.1% not yet
└ funding 9%/yr 10%/yr 2%/yr 7%/yr 7%/yr 5%/yr 11%/yr 11%/yr 32%/yr 5%/yr –
2025-08-21 +12.2% +11.1% +14.0% +6.4% +20.8% ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6
└ funding 26%/yr 12%/yr 26%/yr 20%/yr 17%/yr – – – – – –
2026-06-10 +12.0% +12.7% +15.4% +21.5% +27.1% ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6 ended d6
└ funding 9%/yr 8%/yr 8%/yr 4%/yr 9%/yr – – – – – –
2026-04-30 +6.3% +6.6% +7.3% +8.0% +12.9% +9.8% +11.1% anchor lost d13 anchor lost d13 anchor lost d13 anchor lost d13
└ funding 9%/yr 12%/yr 11%/yr 10%/yr 10%/yr 13%/yr 8%/yr – – – –
median of the completed library +13.2% n=18 +11.8% n=18 +15.4% n=18 +14.7% n=18 +17.6% n=18 +17.1% n=16 +22.0% n=16 +39.2% n=8 +59.4% n=4 +113.8% n=1 +126.1% n=1

R-20260825-percentiles-where-sourceable: day-aligned distributions carry n≥14 only through day 10. From day 11 onward this table prints median + n only, never a percentile.

closest past rises similarity rank, not a probability · ranked out of 19 · scores within 5 points render as tied
#1 of 19 2025-08-21 ATH 78 topped peaked at +26.7% after 6 days closest on what the signals read at the floor it rose from; furthest apart on the shape of the rise so far; that rise had already ended by day 6; how large it is at this day count could not be compared. 32%/yr -1.67σ -13% day 1: +12.2% day 2: +11.1% day 3: +14.0% day 4: +6.4% day 5: +20.8% day 6: +16.3%
#2 of 19 2026-06-10 ATH 72 ≈ tied (±5) topped peaked at +46.4% after 6 days closest on how fast the first three days went; furthest apart on the shape of the rise so far; that rise had already ended by day 6; how large it is at this day count could not be compared. 12%/yr -1.72σ 27% day 1: +12.0% day 2: +12.7% day 3: +15.4% day 4: +21.5% day 5: +27.1% day 6: +39.9%
#3 of 19 2026-04-30 71 anchor lost peaked at +15.6% after 6 days, then the floor broke before a top confirmed closest on what the signals read at the floor it rose from; furthest apart on the shape of the rise so far; that rise had already ended by day 13; how large it is at this day count could not be compared. 7%/yr -1.17σ 8% day 1: +6.3% day 2: +6.6% day 3: +7.3% day 4: +8.0% day 5: +12.9% day 6: +11.4% day 7: +9.8% day 8: +11.8% day 9: +10.8% day 10: +11.1% day 11: +8.5% day 12: +4.0% day 13: +0.3%
all 19 rises date, peak gain, days to peak, ended state, ATH flag
anchor date peak gain days to peak ended ATH
2025-01-13 +50.6% 18d topped no
2025-02-03 +43.1% 11d topped no
2025-03-13 +43.4% 11d topped no
2025-04-07 +329.7% 49d topped yes
2025-06-21 +64.9% 23d topped yes
2025-08-02 +39.8% 13d topped no
2025-08-21 +26.7% 6d topped yes
2025-09-25 +30.1% 10d topped no
2025-10-10 +57.7% 20d topped no
2025-11-04 +22.8% 3d anchor lost no
2025-12-19 +27.8% 18d topped no
2026-01-21 +87.9% 13d topped no
2026-02-24 +70.9% 22d topped no
2026-04-02 +32.9% 14d topped no
2026-04-30 +15.6% 6d anchor lost no
2026-05-14 +98.7% 18d topped yes
2026-06-10 +46.4% 6d topped yes
2026-06-25 +25.0% 12d topped no
2026-08-02 (current) +69.8% 25d still running yes
HOW OLD DO RISES GET — of the 18 completed rises, how many were already over by this day / by this gain Wilson 95% confidence range on every step · no overlap discount needed (these rises never overlap in time)
by day N, what share of past rises had already topped d3d5d7d10d15d20d23d25d30d50
already topped, by this day 6% [1–26] n=18 6% [1–26] n=18 22% [9–45] n=18 28% [12–51] n=18 61% [39–80] n=18 83% [61–94] n=18 94% [74–99] n=18 94% [74–99] n=18 94% [74–99] n=18 100% [82–100] n=18
by gain G, what share had topped at or below that gain +25%+40%+55%+60%+75%+100%
already topped, at or below this gain 17% [6–39] n=18 44% [25–66] n=18 67% [44–84] n=18 72% [49–88] n=18 83% [61–94] n=18 94% [74–99] n=18

today, in one sentence Today is day 27 at +60.1%: age says most rises are over by now; survival says the ones still alive at this age are the ones that keep going — the biggest completed rise looked exactly this "old" and ran 49 days to +329.7%.

Every profile on this page is computed from real HYPE price history, never curated. Historical patterns do not predict future outcomes. This tracker is one half of the future HYPE bottoming process (a separate, later commission) and adds no bottoming logic.

01B BREAKOUT WATCH wakes only at a tested, fought or aged resistance level · 12 stands in 633 days

6m · ACTIVE
breakout day 5 of the stand at the 2×-tested high 83.46–86.73 — fuel and resistance are both present — no clean lean
spot vs the level $81.76 zone $83.46–$86.73 · confirm $91.06 (+11.4%)
no percentile claimed — a distance, not a distribution
stand age day 5 past stands: median 3d, longest 19d
fees 7d accel +3.1% p56 of 596d
verdict CONTESTED cost of standing here: funding 10.0%/yr (p29) · stretch +0.7σ (p61) · 30d run +44.2% (p87)
no breakout model exists here — only the record: 8 of 11 past stands like this one broke within 14 days [43–90, n=11]
BREAKOUT FUEL fuel +0
fees 7d accel +3.1% QUIET p56 of 596d
structure — higher-low intact running FIRING anchor $51.08 · day 27
progress — pokes through the level 0 of 5 COOLING closes above $86.73 in the last 5 days
term slope / ATM IV * 61.5% range builds — 7 days held · usable when 14
volume at the level * 1.5× (expanded) 5d vs 30d mean · p87 of 599d
RESTRAINTS restraints 0
overhead supply 0 CLEAR uncleared levels within +15% of zone top
market machine NEUTRAL CLEAR nothing fired
options braced 23.3% puts CLEAR p28 of 287d
nearest call wall * $90 8,230 contracts · +9.8% from spot
unstaking within 7d * 2.60M HYPE 0.6% of staked · biggest day 2026-09-03 (648.1k)
upside above the confirm line $91.063 (+11.4% from spot), first structure overhead is the $90 call wall (+9.75% from spot, 8,230 contracts)
downside first retest: the broken shelf 77 (-5.8% from spot); the structural floor under the whole rise is the defended higher low 51.081 (-37.5%)
no breakout model exists here — only the record: 8 of 11 past stands like this one broke within 14 days [43–90, n=11]
how this wakes ±7% of a tested, fought or aged resistance level, 3 of the last 5 days…

ACTIVE = a close within ±7% of an eligible resistance level, on today AND on ≥3 of the last 5 days. A level is eligible resistance the way the discipline defines it — by tests and time, any one route: TESTED (a high, of any age, that later days' highs have re-approached within 2% on ≥2 distinct days) · TIME-IN-AREA (≥5 closes within ±7% of it since it was set) · AGED (stood ≥20 trading days — duration of validity) · or a confirmed registry swing high (≥10d old, itself a tested structure). A close 5% above a level retires it. Confirm line = zone top × 1.05. Amended 2026-08-25, R-20260825-tested-resistance-counts.

01C BID WATCH wakes only at a tested, defended or flipped floor · 19 stands in 633 days

6m · ACTIVE · market machine: NEUTRAL
bid spot $81.76 — first bid zone $72.91–77.00 (-5.8% to -10.8% from spot); becomes interesting at $77.00; a close below $69.27 breaks it; if it breaks: next mapped floor $50.16–52.61 (-39% area), which holds the rise's anchor $51.08 · day 4 of the stand on the broken 72.91 shelf — the business is accelerating into the floor
spot vs the floor $81.76 zone $72.91–$77 · break $69.27 (−15.3%)
no percentile claimed — a distance, not a distribution
stand age day 4 past stands: median 4d, longest 18d
fees 7d accel +3.1% p56 of 596d
verdict BID FAVORED speed into this floor: funding 10.0%/yr (p29) · stretch +0.7σ (p61) · 30d run +44.2% (p87)
no floor model exists here — only the record: 5 of 18 past stands at mapped support held within 14 days (K=14) [12–51, n=18]
BID FUEL fuel +2
fees 7d accel +3.1% QUIET p56 of 596d
structure — higher-low intact running FIRING anchor $51.08 · day 27
floor ownership — closes below the level 0 of 5 FIRING closes below $72.91 in the last 5 days
term slope / ATM IV * 61.5% range builds — 7 days held · usable when 14
volume at the level * 1.5× (expanded) 5d vs 30d mean · p87 of 599d
KNIFE RISKS restraints 1
the net below 0 BRACED uncleared floors within −15% of zone low
market machine NEUTRAL CLEAR nothing fired
options braced 23.3% puts CLEAR p28 of 287d
nearest put wall below * $76 43,130 contracts · −7.3% from spot
unstaking within 7d * 2.60M HYPE 0.6% of staked · biggest day 2026-09-03 (648.1k)
hold if the floor holds, no mapped structure stands overhead; blue sky
break a close below $69.27 confirms the breakdown; the next mapped floor is the 50.16–52.61 shelf (-38.7% to -35.7% from spot), which contains the rise's defended anchor $51.08
no floor model exists here — only the record: 5 of 18 past stands at mapped support held within 14 days (K=14) [12–51, n=18]
how this wakes ±7% of a tested, defended or flipped floor, 3 of the last 5 days…

ACTIVE = a close within ±7% of an eligible support level, on today AND on ≥3 of the last 5 days. A level is eligible support by any one of three families: TRAILING PULLBACK LOW (the running minimum of daily lows since the current trailing ATH was set — tested by ≥2 later lows re-approaching within 2% above it, or ≥5 closes within ±7% of it, or ≥20 trading days standing) · REGISTRY SWING LOW (a confirmed HTF swing low from the ascent library, eligible 10d after its date) · FLIPPED RESISTANCE (a tops-registry level the breakout engine's own rule has retired as resistance, eligible 10d after clearing). A close 5% below a level retires it as support, permanently. Break line = zone low × 0.95. Mirror of the breakout watch's activation rule, R-20260826-bid-watch-commissioned.

01D BOTTOMING watching a mapped floor for accumulation signatures

6m · IN-ZONE-WATCHING · zone $72.91–$77
bottom 2 of 6 evaluable signals firing — signals forming, no majority yet
ACCUMULATION SIGNATURES 2 of 6 evaluable firing
S1 · volatility contraction present ● present in 1 of 5 holds vs 3 of 13 breaks (n=18 evaluable of 18 completed stands)
S2 · higher lows absent ○ present in 0 of 5 holds vs 1 of 13 breaks (n=18 evaluable of 18 completed stands)
S3 · fees into the floor present ● present in 2 of 5 holds vs 7 of 13 breaks (n=18 evaluable of 18 completed stands)
S4 · funding washout absent ○ present in 2 of 5 holds vs 3 of 13 breaks (n=18 evaluable of 18 completed stands)
S5 · long-liquidation climax absent ○ no history yet — accrues from today (hype-liq-fills.json keeps only a rolling 26h window and was born 2026-08-28 — no archived tape exists for any of the 18 historical stands (all resolved before the feed existed).)
S6 · absorption (OI + price) absent ○ no history yet — accrues from today (the only OI time series on disk (hyperliquid-stats-history.json) starts 2026-08-19 — after all 18 historical stands had already resolved (the last, stand 18, resolved 2026-08-12). Zero overlap with the record.)
state log last 4 state change(s)…

2026-08-29T06:02:09.264Z — IN-ZONE-WATCHING · zone $72.91–$77 · 2/6 firing · spot $81.76

2026-08-28T19:58:50.773Z — FLOOR-BEHAVING · zone $72.91–$77 · 3/6 firing · spot $80.4

2026-08-28T19:58:36.962Z — IN-ZONE-WATCHING · zone $72.91–$77 · 2/5 firing · spot $80.4

2026-08-28T19:58:31.138Z — FLOOR-BEHAVING · zone $72.91–$77 · 3/6 firing · spot $80.4

how this reads the bid map's own zone, six signatures, an earned count…

Reads bid-watch's own mapped zone (hype-bid-watch.json) as WHERE; asks WHEN that floor is behaving like a bottom. IN-ZONE-WATCHING while bid-watch is ACTIVE and spot has not traded below the zone floor; FLOOR-BEHAVING once a majority of the six evaluable signals fire; FLOOR-FAILING the moment spot trades below the zone floor; NO-ZONE while bid-watch itself is DORMANT (no mapped floor currently defended). Signals: S1 volatility contraction (4h realized sigma below its own 20-period mean) · S2 higher lows (rising sequence of local 4h lows inside the zone) · S3 fees into the floor (bid-watch's own F1, reused live) · S4 funding washout (a capitulation-and-reset shape against the full funding history's own low percentile) · S5 long-liquidation climax (a liquidation-fills spike that flushes to near-zero) · S6 absorption (open interest stable-or-rising while price sits flat in the zone). Every signal's held-vs-broke discrimination against the 18 completed bid-watch stands (5 HELD, 13 BROKE DOWN) ships alongside it — n is small, said on every line.

02 OPTIONS

live
the story
braced for ~3.3% of movement by 30AUG26 (61.4%/yr) · 7 days held
tape lean leaning bullish — calls dominate today's flow
positioning crowded protection on Deribit, calls dominate on Derive — venues disagree, shown apart
pricing priced cheap against how HYPE actually moved this week (−3.5pp vs realized)

Options are braced for about 3.3% of movement by 30AUG26, and that's an annualised 61.4%.

Today's trading leaned calls: 23.6% of the $1,187,413 that changed hands was downside protection (42.8% on Deribit, 22.3% on Derive).

Position-change tracking started 2026-08-24 — first day-over-day read on the day after.

At matched distances from spot, upside options are priced dearer (+9.8pp) — the market is not paying up for crash protection relative to rally exposure.

Against the 65.0% HYPE actually moved (annualised, past 7 days), implied 61.4% means options are cheap relative to recent movement.

assembled from the live snapshot · 1 day of history held

term structure
29AUG26 71.3% 0.1d
30AUG26 61.4% 1.1d RR25 +9.8pp
4SEP26 75.4% 6.1d RR25 +2.3pp
11SEP26 72.3% 13.1d RR25 +4.0pp
25SEP26 70.5% 27.1d RR25 +4.5pp
25DEC26 69.0% 118.1d RR25 +7.3pp
RR25 / VRP
front RR25 +9.8pp
VRP (implied − realized 7d) −3.5pp
realized vol 7d / 14d / 30d 65.0% / 101.8% / 81.2%
IV history accumulating — 7 days held, 23 more before a trend is worth drawing
gamma flip unavailable — requires dealer positioning no public feed publishes
the positioning
DeribitSUSPECT · thin tape
put/call OI1.31×
put share of flow42.8%
24h volume$77.2K
Derive/Lyraok
put/call OI (raw units)0.32×
24h premium$1.1M
put walls (strike-relative)
$76 -6.8% OI 43,130
$68 -16.6% OI 16,480
$40 -50.9% OI 14,010
$55 -32.5% OI 13,760
$65 -20.3% OI 13,210
call walls (strike-relative)
$100 +22.7% OI 18,420
$70 -14.1% OI 11,930
$52 -36.2% OI 9,730
$90 +10.4% OI 8,230
$65 -20.3% OI 6,890

Position-change tracking started 2026-08-24 — first day-over-day read on the day after.

04 SUPPLY GATES

disclosed vesting calendar + live staking-withdrawal queue
NEXT GATE 2026-09-03 — 648.1k HYPE matures biggest day in window · single-day peak in the pending withdrawal queue, 5d out
unstaking queue — maturities ahead rolling 24h/72h/7d totals plus the named biggest day — not a full per-day series; forward-looking only
0–24h
day 2–3
day 4–7, other requests
2026-09-03 (biggest day)
beyond 7d
no vesting tranche scheduled on this read

UNSTAKING QUEUE · STAKING

live delegator withdrawals, 7-day unbonding — api.hypurrscan.io
maturing within 7 days2.60M HYPE1,358 requests
maturing within 72h1.31M HYPE652 requests
maturing within 24h566.8k HYPE227 requests
largest single request274.9k HYPE2,684 total requests · read 3m ago

05 THE BUSINESS UNDERNEATH

1m
annualised protocol revenue $753.4M 24.1× the token's value against it
p39 of 584d
fees, last 30 days vs the month before $62.8M +18.1% against the prior month
p39 of 584d
share of all decentralised perp fees 59.9% measured against 201 competing venues
no free history — verified absent
circulating supply and fully diluted value 222.45M of 955.31M 23.3% unlocked · fully diluted $77.84B
no free history — verified absent
tokens bought back and destroyed 29.4k in 24h 222.9k over 7 days · $896.2M/yr at this pace
p16 of 31d
trading volume, last 24 hours $10.51B 326 active markets · 2,477,276 accounts to date
range builds — 5 days held · usable 2026-09-07
total accounts on Hyperliquid 2,477,276 cumulative, all markets — not HYPE-specific
no free history — verified absent
open interest in HYPE, in coins 24.34M HYPE $1.98B at today's price
no free history — verified absent
change in open interest −4.6% +0.8% over seven days
no free history — verified absent
who is hitting the market, last 24 hours 0.6× buy over sell −$871.7K net, 279 samples · sellers dominant
no free history — verified absent
net order flow, perp — 30d window −$34.4M api.qwantify.io market-flow, HYPE-PERP
p3 of 33d
net order flow, spot — 30d window −$12.4M api.qwantify.io market-flow, HYPE-SPOT
p6 of 33d
exchange-traded fund holdings $286.2M $45.5M in over 7 days · $76.9M over 30
p100 of 85d
ETF outflow trip-wire clear — 30-day net flow is above the −$50M watch line.

07 REGULATORY + COMPETITIVE TIMELINE

dated events with their direction, oldest at the bottom timeline last refreshed 2d ago — stale
2026-08-31 CME CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index scheduled to launch NEUTRAL CME Group press release -- announced, not yet live as of this update (today is 2026-08-27). Confirmed launch effective Monday Aug 31 shortly after 10am London time; new-release testing window opened Aug 24 -- source: https://fxnewsgroup.com/forex-news/exchanges/cme-group-to-launch-cme-cf-crypto-market-index-and-cme-cf-emerging-crypto-index/
2026-08-26 Hyperliquid Policy Center + TradeXYZ Urge the CFTC to create a regulatory path for US energy (oil) perpetual contracts, arguing 24/7 on-chain markets let risk be managed on weekends when traditional oil futures markets are closed NEUTRAL The Block, 2026-08-26 -- comment letter only, no CFTC decision yet; references Middle East supply-disruption weekend as the case study for why 24/7 markets matter -- source: https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-08-26-hyperliquid-policy-center-tradexyz-urges-cftc-create-path-us-oil-perpetuals-412834
2026-08-24 Hyperliquid Policy Center Urges SEC and CFTC to harmonize rules so equity perpetuals qualify as 'security futures' NEUTRAL The Block -- comment letter responding to CME's Dodd-Frank swaps argument in its lawsuit; no ruling yet
2026-08-21 Perp-DEX market Hyperliquid holds ~32% of tracked perp-DEX volume ($172.6B/30d) vs Aster's $52.8B; Lighter (LIT) the fastest-growing #3 on zero-fee retail + ZK-rollup design NEUTRAL 21Shares / Datawallet -- down from ~80% share in Aug 2025 as Aster/Lighter scaled, but still ~3.3x the #2 player -- share erosion appears to have stabilized, not accelerated
2026-08-20 CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee Inaugural IAC meeting in DC covers crypto and prediction-market rules; Hyperliquid was not on the published agenda despite Selig's teaser NEUTRAL CFTC.gov / CNBC -- no Hyperliquid-specific announcement came out of the meeting; HPC + Phantom's July petition to exempt DeFi protocols from legacy exchange rules is still pending
2026-08-19 President Trump / CFTC Chair Mike Selig Trump says the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid into the US 'in a fully compliant and legal fashion' BULLISH The Block / Bloomberg / CoinDesk -- HYPE +11-17% same day; no formal CFTC approval yet -- Selig said he'd detail the path at the Aug 20 Innovation Advisory Committee meeting
2026-08-18 Hyperliquid Policy Center + trade[XYZ] Petition SEC for a regulatory framework covering pre-IPO perpetual contracts ("IPOPs") NEUTRAL KuCoin / CryptoBriefing -- comment letter only, no SEC decision yet; cites 5 live trade[XYZ] pre-IPO markets (Cerebras, Quantinuum, SpaceX, SK Hynix, ChangXin) as track record
2026-08-06 US Senate CLARITY Act misses floor vote before August recess; Thune files cloture for a procedural motion-to-proceed vote on Sep 15 BEARISH CoinDesk / Troutman Financial Services -- bill stays alive but reporting frames 2026 passage as a long shot; Sep 15 is a procedural vote, not a final vote
2026-08-04 Hyperliquid (HIP-3) HIP-3 open interest tops $4B for the first time (reached $4.3B by Aug 17) BULLISH CryptoTimes -- live; trade[XYZ]-led equity/commodity perps now over 90% of HIP-3 open interest
2026-07-20 Hyperliquid HIP-4 prediction-market framework opened permissionless to any builder staking 500K HYPE NEUTRAL TechTimes -- live; expands product surface beyond perps, no confirmed near-term revenue impact

08 METHOD

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