HYPE · LIVE (PUBLIC)
SPOT
1m old
$81.49
Hyperliquid mark
MARKET
NEUTRAL d5.6 ratified
ovh 1/5 binance-usdm
COST OF BEING LONG
1m old
fnd 5%/yr ↓0.3×
24h average, 0.3× the 16% of the six days before it
RISE AGE
6m
day 27 · +60.1%
older than 17 of 18 past rises
HYPE TOP WATCH 7 scored · 8 tracked · every 4h
1m ago · $81.63 QUIET 0/7 0 of 8 no-read
0–2 quiet · 3–4 warn · 5+ top
0 of the 7 scored checks we could measure are firing. All 8 tracked checks have a read this run. The tape is not showing top-like behaviour on the things we measure.
BREAKOUT WATCH 6m
ACTIVE day 5 · CONTESTED zone $83.46–$86.73 · confirm $91.06 · 8 of 11 past setups broke within 14d
support stand 6m
day 4 · BID FAVORED zone $72.91–$77.00 · break $69.27 · 5 of 18 past stands held within 14d
OPTIONS TELLS live
puts share of traded flow † 23.6% — 23.62% of $1,187,413 combined — Deribit 42.83% of $77,156 · Derive 22.29% of $1,110,257
put/call open interest † 1.31× — 1.31× as many put contracts as call contracts are open — a standing position, unaffected by how thin today's trading was.
ATM IV, nearest expiry * 61.4% (30AUG26) — The market is pricing 61.4% annualised volatility into the nearest at-the-money option, expiring 30AUG26.
term structure * +13.9pp — long-term priced scarier than near-term — a calm front with uncertainty priced further out.
walls vs spot * $76P / $90C — nearest put wall $76 — 6.8% below spot; nearest call wall $90 — 10.4% above spot.
what changed today * not available on the public feed — The public projection does not carry a day-over-day comparison block — this row is a private-cockpit-only reading.
funding hot 5%/yr ↓ · 24h mean 5% of 15% · p11 of 633d live quiet
What it costs to hold a leveraged long bet, 24h average. Not firing — the trailing 24-hour average is 5.39% a year, under the 15% line. The single-hour print swings far wider (currently 10.95%) and is not what this checks.
perp-led push perp 1.4× spot of 3.0× 2m ago quiet
Borrowed money, or real buying? Not firing — futures buying is 1.4× spot buying, under the 3× line, or price is not rising. Not a leverage stampede on this window.
TWAP sell skew sell 0.1× buy of 1.5× 2m ago quiet
Is somebody large quietly feeding size in? Not firing — scheduled sell size is 0.1× scheduled buy size, under the 1.5× line. No large seller is visibly working the tape.
price extended +0.8σ of 1.5σ · p64 of 620d live quiet
How far above its own recent average price has run. Not firing — the last close of 80.94 is inside the 1.5-deviation band around its 14-day average of 72.8, and the day’s -2.09% move is under two deviations.
price up, fees down fees 7d $3.47M vs $2.79M live quiet
Is the rise backed by the business underneath? Not firing — fees averaged $3.47M/day this week vs $2.79M last week. Revenue is keeping up with price.
vol stress * 2w/1m 1.25× of 1.25× · p96 of 603d live quiet · not scored
Is the tape getting disorderly? (tracked, not scored) Two-week swings are 1.25× one-month swings, under the 1.25× line. DISPLAYED, NOT SCORED (retired 2026-08-24) — days like this measured 11.1% [3–33%] against a 38.3% base rate, LESS likely than an ordinary day to precede a top. Shown for tape-disorder context; never moves the band.
lower-high failure hi 85.19 → 82.2 live quiet
A stretched high price could not get back to. Not firing — the latest four-hour high of 82.2 is at or above the prior one of 85.19. Highs are still being made, not failed.
options protection bid put flow 43%→43.8% · p/c 1.17× · OI 1.31× · p37 of 287d 59m ago quiet
Is the options market bidding up protection against a drop? Quiet — flow legs muted (thin tape — only $78,512 of total traded notional in the venue's 24h window (below the $250,000 thin-flow line) — the put/call VOLUME ratio and put_share_of_flow_pct are a handful of tickets, not a flow signal. Published with this warning attached rather than suppressed, because a thin tape is itself information. The OI ratio is unaffected.) — scored QUIET on open-interest positioning 1.31×, under the 1.5× line. An untradeable-thin tape is not evidence of calm on the OI leg either, but OI is a stock and IS a real reading here, so this is a genuine QUIET, not a NO READ. Redesigned 2026-08-24 so a thin tape reads QUIET here, not NO READ — open interest is a standing position and is readable every run.
MARKET STATE NEUTRAL day 5.6 ratified 2026-08-21
just now binance-usdm v2.1NEUTRAL, day 5.6. Nothing has been CONFIRMED yet — and NEUTRAL means the absence of a confirmed condition, never a forecast that things stay calm. Overheat: 1/5 met — how many coins are up together. Flush: firing on bitcoin falling on heavy volume; cost of being long has reset.
OVERHEATING 1/5 needs 3 NEVER TESTED
Checked against nothing. A guess with a plausible shape — read it as a description, never a verdict.
cost of being long, market-wide md 11% · 5%>60 not met
Not met — leverage across the big markets is not yet expensive enough to count as crowded.
money at risk in futures, near its peak 4.3% off peak not met
Not met — positioning is off its thirty-day peak, so there is less to unwind than there was.
how many coins are up together 90% MET
MET — almost everything is above its own two-week average at the same time.
premium on dated futures 3.9% not met
Not met — the premium on dated futures is ordinary; the carry crowd is not stacked up.
a major already on our own warning list no not met
Not met — no major is both on warning and statistically stretched.
LEVERAGE FLUSH rolling 24h window TESTED · 4.7 YEARS
Checked against 20 real crashes over 4.7 years. Catches 13 of the 20.
futures positions draining −3.04%/24h · -1.9σ quiet
Not firing — positions are not draining; nothing is washing out on the plane we measure.
bitcoin falling on heavy volume −2.92% · vol 0.1× FIRING
FIRING — Bitcoin is falling harder than a normal day, on unusually heavy volume.
cost of being long has reset md +10.95% · drop 82pts FIRING
FIRING — longs are no longer paying up; leverage has genuinely come out.
venues agree (3 planes)
LOG MEDIUM replay-calibrated, partial feature set 52% positive [45%–59%] · N_eff 138
this state has never been shown to predict anything
MARKET NEUTRAL, day 5.6 — no flush, no overheat, no grind. Overheat 1/5 (needs 3). Replay cohort: BTC +7d 52% positive [45%–59%] on N_eff 138, indistinguishable from the unconditional 51%. NEUTRAL is the absence of a measured condition, not a forecast of calm.
LAST TRANSITIONS cycle history
08-23 15:19 OVERHEATED → NEUTRAL overheat faded and stayed faded 12h
08-22 02:02 NEUTRAL → OVERHEATED overheat conditions sustained 12h
08-21 13:44 NEUTRAL → OVERHEATED overheat conditions sustained 2 runs
MARKET WATCH BTC · ETH · SOL + breadth
1m agoBTC QUIET 1/5 · ETH QUIET 1/5 · SOL QUIET 1/5. The most stretched is BTC, firing on swings widening.
EVERYTHING UP AT ONCE? 90% 18 of the 20 busiest coins are trading above their own two-week average price. Almost everything is up at once, which is what the late part of a move looks like: there is very little left to rotate into.
BTC QUIET 1/5 fnd 11%/yr −2.9%
QUIET, 1 of the 5 checks we could measure. Firing: swings widening. Down 2.9% over the last day.
ETH QUIET 1/5 fnd 11%/yr −2.6%
QUIET, 1 of the 5 checks we could measure. Firing: swings widening. Down 2.6% over the last day.
SOL QUIET 1/5 fnd 11%/yr −3.5%
QUIET, 1 of the 5 checks we could measure. Firing: swings widening. Down 3.5% over the last day.
MARKET VITALS
six market-wide inputs · coloured only at a historical extreme
FND md 11% · 10%>hot OI Δ24h −3.0% · dd 4.3% STBL 7d +0.40% BASIS 3.9% DVOL 38/50 · VRP −20 DOM 56.8%
SATELLITES monitor-only
1m ago LIT QUIET 0/4
3.3783 −4.1% fnd 11%/yr $36M · 5×
funding hot 11%/yr price extended 24h -4.1% vs ±6.2% normal vol stress 1.15× its 30-day swing lower-high failure -3.6% under its recent high
down 4.1% on the day, costing 11% a year to hold a long, which is about as low as it gets for this coin. None of the 4 checks we can run are firing.
NO READ on perp-led push and TWAP sell skew
VVV QUIET 0/4
15.9570 −8.7% fnd 11%/yr $10M · 3×
funding hot 11%/yr price extended 24h -8.7% vs ±5.5% normal vol stress 1.23× its 30-day swing lower-high failure -8.8% under its recent high
down 8.7% on the day, costing 11% a year to hold a long, which is about as low as it gets for this coin. None of the 4 checks we can run are firing. This coin spends a lot of its hours above the funding line, so a funding flag here is noisier than the same flag on a deeper coin.
NO READ on perp-led push and TWAP sell skew
ZEC QUIET 1/4
799.26 +0.7% fnd 11%/yr $286M · 10×
funding hot 11%/yr price extended 24h +0.7% vs ±8.1% normal vol stress 1.36× its 30-day swing lower-high failure -0.7% under its recent high
up 0.7% on the day, costing 11% a year to hold a long, which is about as low as it gets for this coin. 1 of the 4 checks we can run are firing (vol stress) — not enough to mean anything on its own. This coin spends a lot of its hours above the funding line, so a funding flag here is noisier than the same flag on a deeper coin.
NO READ on perp-led push and TWAP sell skew
PUMP QUIET 1/4
0.004596 −2.3% fnd 11%/yr $123M · 10×
funding hot 11%/yr price extended 24h -2.3% vs ±10.0% normal vol stress 1.32× its 30-day swing lower-high failure -5.9% under its recent high
down 2.3% on the day, costing 11% a year to hold a long, which is about as low as it gets for this coin. 1 of the 4 checks we can run are firing (vol stress) — not enough to mean anything on its own. This coin spends a lot of its hours above the funding line, so a funding flag here is noisier than the same flag on a deeper coin.
NO READ on perp-led push and TWAP sell skew